Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Kalamata travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 4D 2L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have recorded 0W 0D 2L from 2 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 xG and Kalamata 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.945 / defence 0.806 | Kalamata attack 0.719 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 28 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 2 Kalamata games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Kalamata 11%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Kalamata 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 28% | Kalamata 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 37% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.62 / Kalamata 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.945 / def 0.806 | Kalamata attack 0.719 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Kalamata xG
37%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 61% chance of winning, Kalamata a 11% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Kalamata (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.94x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
61%
1.63
28%
3.63
11%
8.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.20
0.58
Kalamata xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
8.86
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
2%
44.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.58 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalamata.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 50% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 50% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.