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Poisson model rates PAOK at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

PAOK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.77 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.134 / defence 0.864 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 PAOK games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 26% | Iraklis 1908 15%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Iraklis 1908 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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