Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Asteras Tripolis's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 1W, Levadiakos 2W, 4D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 54% versus Levadiakos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 49% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.57 xG and Levadiakos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.936 / defence 1.028 | Levadiakos attack 0.725 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Data: 32 Asteras Tripolis games / 33 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 55% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 15%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.82 | Draw 3.23 | Levadiakos 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Asteras Tripolis (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 60% | Levadiakos 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 55% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.57 / Levadiakos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.936 / def 1.028 | Levadiakos attack 0.725 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Levadiakos xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 55% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 4 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.72x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
55%
1.82
31%
3.26
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.30
0.73
Levadiakos xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
26%
3.77
3%
33.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.73 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 10W 13D 16L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 15L across 39 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.38 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 5D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.62 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 13D 16L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 9D 15L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Levadiakos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.37 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 53%, Levadiakos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Asteras Tripolis) and 58% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 32% of games; Levadiakos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 42% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 58% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.