OFI 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as OFI take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Monday 30 October 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for OFI.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.980 / defence 0.884 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.256 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.035. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 OFI games / 34 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 30 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG OFI 1.22 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.980 / def 0.884 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.256 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 30 October 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 34% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (4 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.98) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
OFI xG
Total xG
2.37
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for OFI and 1.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, OFI have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 13W 15D 13L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 25W 11D 5L from 41 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 10W 6D 3L from 19 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.15 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 15D 13L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 11D 5L in their last 41 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.37 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.89 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
OFI
0
Draws
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 47%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (OFI) and 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 53%; OFI have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of OFI's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of OFI's recent games and 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.26 / defence 0.76, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 34% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.