Panserraikos 2-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panserraikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees OFI travel to Dimotiko Stadio Serron to take on Panserraikos. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — All Games: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.12 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, OFI have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Panserraikos at 1.12 PPG versus OFI's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Panserraikos trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
OFI trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus OFI 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panserraikos 38% | OFI 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.50 xG and OFI 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.983 / defence 1.129 | OFI attack 0.840 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.136. Data: 8 Panserraikos games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 43% | Draw 33% | OFI 24%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | OFI 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panserraikos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panserraikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 67% | OFI 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 43% | Draw 33% | OFI 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Panserraikos 1.50 / OFI 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.983 / def 1.129 | OFI attack 0.840 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
OFI xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs OFI kick off?
Panserraikos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs OFI?
Panserraikos 2 - 1 OFI.
Where is Panserraikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs OFI part of?
Panserraikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 43% chance of winning, OFI a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panserraikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panserraikos and OFI in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.98x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.01
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
OFI xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.08 for OFI, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI's form line: 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 1.12 PPG, OFI on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Panserraikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, OFI have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panserraikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panserraikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 0.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while OFI have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or OFI away?
Panserraikos's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 2.33 PPG; OFI away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, OFI in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panserraikos and OFI runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2024, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panserraikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and OFI?
From 7 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 1, OFI have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when OFI 3-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panserraikos at 67%, OFI at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Panserraikos and 33% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI in 33%; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Panserraikos's games and 67% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Panserraikos's recent games and 33% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panserraikos edge out OFI 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat OFI 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.50 xG and OFI 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against OFI attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 43% | Draw 33% | OFI 24%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 38%, OFI 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.12 PPG, OFI 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.