Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis welcome PAS Giannina to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Aris Thessalonikis at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, PAS Giannina have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAS Giannina away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, PAS Giannina 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Aris Thessalonikis 3–1 PAS Giannina — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 58% | PAS Giannina 51%). Note also that PAS Giannina surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Aris Thessalonikis recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.81 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.985 / defence 0.891 | PAS Giannina attack 1.028 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.075. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 34 games and PAS Giannina's last 34.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 17%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.87 | Draw 3.40 | PAS Giannina 5.88. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 70% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.81 / PAS Giannina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.985 / def 0.891 | PAS Giannina attack 1.028 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 54% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (0.98) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 34 games and PAS Giannina's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
54%
1.87
29%
3.40
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.80
0.99
PAS Giannina xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
36.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.99 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 17W 7D 17L from 41 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five.
PAS Giannina, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 18L across 41 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 13W 2D 5L from their last 20 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PAS Giannina's away record stands at 2W 9D 9L across their last 20 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.02 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs PAS Giannina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 7D 17L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or PAS Giannina away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.05 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Nov 2021, when PAS Giannina won Aris Thessalonikis 0-5 PAS Giannina.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: PAS Giannina 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 60%, PAS Giannina 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Aris Thessalonikis and 50% for PAS Giannina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs PAS Giannina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 65% of PAS Giannina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 50% of PAS Giannina's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and PAS Giannina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 65% of PAS Giannina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAS Giannina 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.81 xG and PAS Giannina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAS Giannina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Draw 29% | PAS Giannina 17%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 58%, PAS Giannina 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.