Kifisia 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kifisia at 41%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kifisia vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Kifisia versus OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kifisia (all games): 1W 3D 3L across 7 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.86 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kifisia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Kifisia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
OFI have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, OFI are the stronger side — 1.04 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.86). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Kifisia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kifisia 71% and OFI 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 71% | OFI 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.82 xG and OFI 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 1.020 / defence 1.434 | OFI attack 0.991 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.094. Data: 7 Kifisia games / 33 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 30%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kifisia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kifisia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 100% | OFI 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Kifisia 1.82 / OFI 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 1.020 / def 1.434 | OFI attack 0.991 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.55
OFI xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs OFI kick off?
Kifisia vs OFI kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Kifisia 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Kifisia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Kifisia vs OFI part of?
Kifisia vs OFI is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 41% chance of winning, OFI a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Kifisia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kifisia and OFI in?
Kifisia (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 2.29 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. OFI (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 1.02x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.99x) against Kifisia's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 7/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.53
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.38
1.55
OFI xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.41
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Kifisia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.55 for OFI, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kifisia come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Kifisia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kifisia's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Kifisia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kifisia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and OFI in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while OFI have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or OFI away?
Kifisia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.67 PPG; OFI away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kifisia have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Kifisia
3
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
From 5 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 2, OFI have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Kifisia 2-2 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and OFI?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Kifisia, 67% for OFI — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kifisia and 67% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Kifisia's games and 67% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kifisia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kifisia's matches and 67% of OFI's.
Do Kifisia and OFI tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia and OFI finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.82 xG and OFI 1.55 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 1.8 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 1.02 / defence 1.43 against OFI attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 30%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 71%, OFI 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.