OFI 2-3 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ionikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OFI's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ionikos — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ionikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: OFI 1.40 PPG, Ionikos 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of OFI's games and 60% of Ionikos's (from OFI's last 10 home games and Ionikos's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for OFI, 0 for Ionikos and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2022, ended OFI 0–0 Ionikos — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Ionikos 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Ionikos 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OFI surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Ionikos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and Ionikos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.168 / defence 1.381 | Ionikos attack 0.881 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.323 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. OFI's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ionikos's projected output up. Data: built from OFI's last 26 games and Ionikos's last 26.
Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Ionikos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.32 | Draw 3.96 | Ionikos 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 70% (last 10 home games) | Ionikos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Ionikos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG OFI 1.53 / Ionikos 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.168 / def 1.381 | Ionikos attack 0.881 / def 1.323 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: OFI (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Ionikos xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Ionikos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Ionikos kick off?
OFI vs Ionikos kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Ionikos?
OFI 2 - 3 Ionikos.
Where is OFI vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Ionikos part of?
OFI vs Ionikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 43% chance of winning, Ionikos a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both OFI and Ionikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 26 games and Ionikos's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.96
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OFI xG
Total xG
2.81
1.28
Ionikos xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Ionikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OFI and 1.28 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, OFI have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 9W 10D 7L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Ionikos's form line: 6W 8D 12L from 26 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 13 home games (5W 5D 3L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 2W 4D 7L from their last 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Ionikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ OFI vs Ionikos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Ionikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 9W 10D 7L in their last 26 games (1.42 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Ionikos away?
OFI's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.54 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.77 PPG.
Have OFI or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ionikos in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 6 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Ionikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Ionikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 May 2023: OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 69%, Ionikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (OFI) and 46% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ionikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Ionikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Ionikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of OFI's games and 54% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Ionikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of OFI's recent games and 46% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Ionikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of OFI's recent matches and 77% of Ionikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ionikos defy the odds to beat OFI 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat OFI 2-3 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and Ionikos 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ionikos outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.17 / defence 1.38 against Ionikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Ionikos 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Ionikos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ionikos's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Ionikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.