Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Atromitos welcome Apollon Smirnis to Stadio Peristeriou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Apollon Smirnis have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Atromitos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Atromitos, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Atromitos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Atromitos 46% | Apollon Smirnis 23%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 54% | Apollon Smirnis 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.91 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.097 / defence 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.502 / defence 1.761. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.761 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Atromitos games / 26 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 13%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Apollon Smirnis 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atromitos are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | Apollon Smirnis 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Atromitos 1.91 / Apollon Smirnis 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.097 / def 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.502 / def 1.761 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Apollon Smirnis xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Atromitos 1 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 65% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
Record (2 meetings): Atromitos 2W | Draws 0 | Apollon Smirnis 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis in?
Atromitos (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.10x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Apollon Smirnis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.69
13%
7.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.64
0.73
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
7.49
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
15%
6.76
Win to Nil
32%
3.17
2%
50.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.73 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Atromitos have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 5D 15L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Apollon Smirnis's form line: 2W 7D 17L from 26 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 0.88 PPG, Apollon Smirnis on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 1D 11L from 13 away games — 0.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.35 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 23%.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 2W 7D 17L in their last 26 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.31 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atromitos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Atromitos won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Apollon Smirnis specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Atromitos
0
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
From 3 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Atromitos 1-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 54%, Apollon Smirnis 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atromitos) and 54% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 31% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 69%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atromitos's recent matches and 31% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Atromitos's recent games and 54% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Apollon Smirnis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Apollon Smirnis 1-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.91 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.73 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atromitos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.10 / defence 1.38 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.50 / defence 1.76, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 13%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 54%, Apollon Smirnis 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 73% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 0.88 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.