Panetolikos 1-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lamia — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Panetolikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 54% versus Lamia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 58% | Lamia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.85 xG and Lamia 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.732 / defence 1.087 | Lamia attack 0.535 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.049. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Panetolikos games / 26 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 37% | Lamia 24%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Lamia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.46 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 26% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 40% | Lamia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 39% | Draw 37% | Lamia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Panetolikos 0.85 / Lamia 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.732 / def 1.087 | Lamia attack 0.535 / def 1.174 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Lamia xG
26%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 39% chance of winning, Lamia a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.73x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (18.2%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
39%
2.60
37%
2.69
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.46
0.61
Lamia xG
2.60
39%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.81
74%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.2 | 14.2 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.7 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.61 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 5D 12L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.69 PPG from 26 outings (4W 6D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.73 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Lamia have gone 4W 6D 16L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.15 PPG; Lamia away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 46%, Lamia 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panetolikos) and 31% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lamia in 31%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 31% of games; Lamia in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 31% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Panetolikos's recent games and 31% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Lamia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.85 xG and Lamia 0.61 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamia outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Lamia attack 0.54 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 39% | Draw 37% | Lamia 24%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 58%, Lamia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panetolikos arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.