Ionikos 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ionikos at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ionikos vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias plays host to Ionikos versus Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 6 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ionikos have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ionikos 0W, Panetolikos 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 48% versus Panetolikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 44% | Panetolikos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.35 xG and Panetolikos 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.929 / defence 1.136 | Panetolikos attack 0.912 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.054. Panetolikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing Ionikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Ionikos games / 25 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 43% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Panetolikos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ionikos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ionikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ionikos 50% | Panetolikos 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 43% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Ionikos 1.35 / Panetolikos 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.929 / def 1.136 | Panetolikos attack 0.912 / def 1.433 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Panetolikos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs Panetolikos kick off?
Ionikos vs Panetolikos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Panetolikos?
Ionikos 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is Ionikos vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Panetolikos part of?
Ionikos vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 43% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ionikos and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Panetolikos?
Record (1 meetings): Ionikos 0W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 0W.
What form are Ionikos and Panetolikos in?
Ionikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ionikos's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.91x) against Ionikos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.69
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
Panetolikos xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.09 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ionikos come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 8D 11L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panetolikos sit at 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Ionikos against 1.16 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ionikos's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Panetolikos have taken 1.17 points per game from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ionikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 games (1.04 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Panetolikos away?
Ionikos's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ionikos
2
Draws
2
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Panetolikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, Panetolikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Panetolikos 0-1 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 42%, Panetolikos 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ionikos) and 67% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Ionikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ionikos have failed to score in 42% of games; Panetolikos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ionikos's recent matches and 58% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ionikos's recent games and 67% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Ionikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Ionikos 1-2 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.35 xG and Panetolikos 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Panetolikos attack 0.91 / defence 1.43, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 43% | Draw 27% | Panetolikos 30%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 44%, Panetolikos 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ionikos 1.04 PPG, Panetolikos 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Ionikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.