OFI 0-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 34%, yet in-form Asteras Tripolis provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
OFI welcome Asteras Tripolis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 15). Kick-off is Thursday 21 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OFI have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, OFI have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — OFI are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Asteras Tripolis — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Asteras Tripolis away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Asteras Tripolis's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, OFI have won 0, Asteras Tripolis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended OFI 0–3 Asteras Tripolis — a Asteras Tripolis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus Asteras Tripolis 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 40% | Asteras Tripolis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.15 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.837 / defence 0.922 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.071 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.156. Data: built from OFI's last 40 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 40.
Result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 34%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.91 | Draw 3.15 | Asteras Tripolis 2.95. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — OFI 34% and Asteras Tripolis 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 70% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Thursday 21 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG OFI 1.15 / Asteras Tripolis 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.837 / def 0.922 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.071 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — OFI and Asteras Tripolis level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI 0 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 15) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 34% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will OFI vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.84) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 40 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
OFI xG
Total xG
2.29
1.14
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for OFI and 1.14 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 17D 17L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.02 PPG from 47 outings (10W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.19 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 6W 10D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 22 away games (3W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.83 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 17D 17L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 18D 19L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
OFI's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.27 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.73 PPG.
Have OFI or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
OFI's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: OFI 2-2 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Asteras Tripolis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (OFI) and 41% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 36% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 36% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of OFI's recent games and 41% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of OFI's recent matches and 64% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.15 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.14 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.07 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 34% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 34%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 40%, Asteras Tripolis 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.19 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.