Asteras Tripolis 1-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Asteras Tripolis face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PAOK are 0.90 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Asteras Tripolis's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 35% versus PAOK 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 35% | PAOK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.709 / defence 1.241 | PAOK attack 1.325 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.067. Asteras Tripolis's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Asteras Tripolis games / 39 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 21% | Draw 27% | PAOK 52%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 1.92. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 30% | PAOK 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 21% | Draw 27% | PAOK 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.07 / PAOK 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.709 / def 1.241 | PAOK attack 1.325 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: PAOK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.75
PAOK xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 4 PAOK.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 21% chance of winning, PAOK a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
Record (5 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 2 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Asteras Tripolis's attack at 0.71x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.32x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
21%
4.70
27%
3.69
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.83
1.75
PAOK xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
27.18
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.75 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 18D 18L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.93 PPG from 46 outings (26W 11D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 7W 10D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.80 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and PAOK in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 10W 18D 18L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while PAOK have gone 26W 11D 9L in their last 46 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.41 PPG; PAOK away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
7
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, PAOK have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 36%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Asteras Tripolis) and 50% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; PAOK in 32%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 50% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and PAOK tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, PAOK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Asteras Tripolis 1-4 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.75 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.71 / defence 1.24 against PAOK attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 21% | Draw 27% | PAOK 52%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 35%, PAOK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.