PAOK 4-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host OFI at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 3 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAOK, 1 for OFI and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | OFI 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.18 xG and OFI 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.293 / defence 0.665 | OFI attack 0.705 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.178. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 PAOK games / 41 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 7%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.35 | Draw 5.56 | OFI 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (74%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 38% | xG PAOK 2.18 / OFI 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.293 / def 0.665 | OFI attack 0.705 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: PAOK (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.55
OFI xG
38%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs OFI kick off?
PAOK vs OFI kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 January 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs OFI?
PAOK 4 - 0 OFI.
Where is PAOK vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs OFI part of?
PAOK vs OFI is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 74% chance of winning, OFI a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both PAOK and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
Record (5 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 2 | OFI 1W.
What form are PAOK and OFI in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.29) and OFI's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 3-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
74%
1.35
18%
5.43
7%
13.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
3 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.73
0.55
OFI xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
13.77
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
43%
2.34
1%
121.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for PAOK and 0.55 for OFI, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 48 games, going 28W 11D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.17 PPG from 48 outings (13W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 15W 4D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.04 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and OFI in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 28W 11D 9L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 17D 18L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or OFI away?
PAOK's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.13 PPG; OFI away: 1.22 PPG.
Have PAOK or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, OFI in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PAOK
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 6, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and OFI?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 35%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (PAOK) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; OFI in 30%; OFI in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of PAOK's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of PAOK's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and OFI tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, OFI in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 4-0 hammering of OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat OFI 4-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.18 xG and OFI 0.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.29 / defence 0.67 against OFI attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 74% | Draw 18% | OFI 7%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 56%, OFI 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.