Atromitos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Peristeriou to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 December 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Peristeriou this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Atromitos's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Atromitos.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 57% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 34% | Olympiakos Piraeus 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.08 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.005 / defence 1.045 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.180 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.217. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.689 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Atromitos games / 40 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.08 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.005 / def 1.045 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.180 / def 0.689 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Atromitos 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 2 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.00x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.48
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
6%
17.35
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.50 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 17D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.11 PPG from 47 outings (29W 12D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atromitos's home form reads 9W 10D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.00 points per game from 23 outings (13W 7D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.13 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 29W 12D 6L in their last 47 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.61 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atromitos
3
Draws
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Atromitos and 44% for Olympiakos Piraeus.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%; Atromitos have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atromitos's recent matches and 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Atromitos's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atromitos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.08 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.18 / defence 0.69, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 34%, Olympiakos Piraeus 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.