Levadiakos vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Levadiakos take on OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees OFI travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for OFI and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Levadiakos trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
OFI trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 45% versus OFI 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 55% | OFI 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.88 xG and OFI 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / defence 1.076 | OFI attack 0.947 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 32 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 28% | Draw 38% | OFI 34%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | OFI 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | OFI 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 28% | Draw 38% | OFI 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Levadiakos 0.88 / OFI 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / def 1.076 | OFI attack 0.947 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.99
OFI xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs OFI kick off?
Levadiakos vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs OFI part of?
Levadiakos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 28% chance of winning, OFI a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Levadiakos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): Levadiakos 3W | Draws 3 | OFI 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.59) and OFI's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.61
38%
2.61
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.87
0.99
OFI xG
3.61
28%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.99 for OFI, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 9D 15L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (15W 4D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 1.34 PPG, OFI on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.34 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and OFI in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while OFI have gone 15W 4D 19L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or OFI away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.63 PPG; OFI away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levadiakos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Levadiakos
3
Draws
3
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and OFI?
From 9 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 3, OFI have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 47%, OFI 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Levadiakos and 74% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 32% of games; OFI in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 58% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Levadiakos's matches and 74% of OFI's.
Do Levadiakos and OFI tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, OFI in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.