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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 16 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Levadiakos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.71 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.096 / defence 1.023 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 54% | Draw 28% | Iraklis 1908 19%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Iraklis 1908 5.26. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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