Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Levadiakos take on Iraklis 1908.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Iraklis 1908 in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 16 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Iraklis 1908 (all games): 1W 3D 3L across 7 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.86 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Levadiakos, 0.86 for Iraklis 1908 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Iraklis 1908 and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Iraklis 1908 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 100% of games.
Iraklis 1908 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 0% | Iraklis 1908 43%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 14% | Iraklis 1908 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.89 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / defence 1.076 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.708 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 6 Iraklis 1908 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 34% | Draw 41% | Iraklis 1908 25%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.94 | Draw 2.44 | Iraklis 1908 4.00. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Iraklis 1908's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 40% | Iraklis 1908 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 34% | Draw 41% | Iraklis 1908 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 34% | xG Levadiakos 0.89 / Iraklis 1908 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / def 1.076 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.708 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Iraklis 1908 xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 January 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 34% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 25% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | Iraklis 1908 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Iraklis 1908's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Iraklis 1908's attack (0.71x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 33/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
41%
2.45
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.64
0.74
Iraklis 1908 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.45
41%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.74 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.29 PPG on a 0W 2D 5L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Iraklis 1908's form line: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Iraklis 1908 are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 0.25 PPG from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
On the road, Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Iraklis 1908 away?
Iraklis 1908's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 0.25 PPG; Iraklis 1908 away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
0
Draws
1
Iraklis 1908
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908?
From 1 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Iraklis 1908 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Iraklis 1908 2-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908?
Iraklis 1908 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Levadiakos) and 50% (Iraklis 1908) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Levadiakos and 50% for Iraklis 1908.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 100% of games; Iraklis 1908 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.