OFI vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OFI at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pankritio Stadium plays host to OFI versus Kalamata in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 20 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
OFI (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pankritio Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Kalamata have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kalamata have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for OFI against 1.17 for Kalamata. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
OFI — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kalamata — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 33% versus Kalamata 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Kalamata 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.63 xG and Kalamata 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.101 / defence 0.952 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Data: 32 OFI games / 6 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 50% | Draw 30% | Kalamata 20%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Kalamata 5.00. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: OFI 30% | Kalamata 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 50% | Draw 30% | Kalamata 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG OFI 1.63 / Kalamata 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.101 / def 0.952 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: OFI (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kalamata xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Kalamata kick off?
OFI vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Kalamata part of?
OFI vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 50% chance of winning, Kalamata a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OFI and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Kalamata in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Kalamata (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.10) and Kalamata's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalamata's attack (1.05x) against OFI's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 32/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.30
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
OFI xG
Total xG
2.60
0.97
Kalamata xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
25.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for OFI and 0.97 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, OFI have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalamata.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata in 67%.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Kalamata in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Kalamata away?
OFI's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 2.33 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.33 PPG.
Have OFI or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 33%, Kalamata 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for OFI and 33% for Kalamata.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Kalamata in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of OFI's recent matches and 67% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of OFI's recent games and 33% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Kalamata tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.