Levadiakos 3-2 OFI – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face OFI.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

OFI travel to Levadia Stadium to take on Levadiakos in Super League 1 (Conference League Group - 5). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Levadiakos stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, OFI have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, OFI have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 1.10 PPG, OFI 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Levadiakos's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Levadiakos have won 2, OFI 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2026, ended Levadiakos 0–2 OFI — a OFI win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Levadiakos trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

OFI trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 58% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 58% | OFI 61%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Levadiakos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.04 xG and OFI 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.256 / defence 1.066 | OFI attack 1.082 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack rating of 1.256 — their 2.04 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. OFI's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levadiakos's projected output up. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 52 games and OFI's last 52.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 55% | Draw 24% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.83 | Draw 4.11 | OFI 4.73. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Levadiakos's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 70% (last 10 home games) | OFI 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights