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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Conference League Group - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 3W 6D 1L at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Levadiakos away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis, 1.30 for Levadiakos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 1 for Levadiakos and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Levadiakos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Levadiakos 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.19 xG and Levadiakos 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.738 / defence 0.924 | Levadiakos attack 1.053 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Aris Thessalonikis's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Draw 33% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Levadiakos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Levadiakos 40%.

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