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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos encounter.

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Full Analysis

Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 25 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 5D 1L at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levadiakos away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Levadiakos are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 1 for Levadiakos and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus Levadiakos 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Levadiakos 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.03 xG and Levadiakos 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.808 / defence 0.844 | Levadiakos attack 1.288 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.089. Levadiakos have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Aris Thessalonikis games / 43 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 32% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 39%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Levadiakos 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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