Lamia 1-5 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 4 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Olympiakos Piraeus, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Lamia.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Lamia winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 52% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 53% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.12 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.899 / defence 1.091 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.149 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamia 1.12 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.899 / def 1.091 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.149 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Lamia 1 - 5 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 23% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (6 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5W.
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Lamia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.90) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
23%
4.37
28%
3.54
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.83
1.70
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
4%
24.01
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Lamia and 1.70 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Lamia have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 21D 27L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 38W 13D 11L from 62 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 17W 8D 5L from 30 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.06 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 21D 27L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 38W 13D 11L in their last 62 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.23 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Lamia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, Olympiakos Piraeus 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamia) and 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 47%; Lamia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 40% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamia's recent games and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 1-5 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.12 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.70 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.70 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 23% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 53%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.