PAOK 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 3 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: PAOK have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 6 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with PAOK winning.
The historical record gives PAOK a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 57% | Lamia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.24 xG and Lamia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.253 / defence 0.834 | Lamia attack 1.077 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 23% | Lamia 18%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Lamia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Lamia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 23% | Lamia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG PAOK 2.24 / Lamia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.253 / def 0.834 | Lamia attack 1.077 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: PAOK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lamia xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Lamia kick off?
PAOK vs Lamia kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Lamia?
PAOK 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is PAOK vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Lamia part of?
PAOK vs Lamia is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 59% chance of winning, Lamia a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both PAOK and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
Record (6 meetings): PAOK 6W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are PAOK and Lamia in?
PAOK (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Lamia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.25) and Lamia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.36
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.47
1.22
Lamia xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
11%
9.43
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
2%
51.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are PAOK and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for PAOK and 1.22 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 37W 12D 12L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 14W 21D 26L from 61 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.99 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (19W 5D 6L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 13D 13L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.97 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 37W 12D 12L in their last 61 games (2.02 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 21D 26L in their last 61 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Lamia away?
PAOK's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.07 PPG; Lamia away: 0.83 PPG.
Have PAOK or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lamia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Lamia?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 37%, Lamia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (PAOK) and 53% (Lamia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Lamia in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of PAOK's matches and 53% of Lamia's.
Do PAOK and Lamia tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lamia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.24 xG and Lamia 1.22 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Lamia attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 59% | Draw 23% | Lamia 18%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 57%, Lamia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.