Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2.00 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, PAOK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 46% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | PAOK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.51 xG and PAOK 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.312 / defence 0.832 | PAOK attack 1.478 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.478 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | Draw 27% | PAOK 40%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | PAOK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | Draw 27% | PAOK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.51 / PAOK 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.312 / def 0.832 | PAOK attack 1.478 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.67
PAOK xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 33% chance of winning, PAOK a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.31) and PAOK's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.48x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.65
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.18
1.67
PAOK xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.67 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 41W 14D 11L from 66 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 40W 14D 12L across 66 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.08 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.03 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 23W 5D 5L from 33 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 18W 9D 6L across 33 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.98 scored and 0.89 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 14D 11L in their last 66 games (2.08 PPG), while PAOK have gone 40W 14D 12L in their last 66 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.24 PPG; PAOK away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, PAOK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 54% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; PAOK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 54% of PAOK's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAOK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat PAOK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.51 xG and PAOK 1.67 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.31 / defence 0.83 against PAOK attack 1.48 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | Draw 27% | PAOK 40%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, PAOK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 PPG, PAOK 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.