Panathinaikos 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Championship Round - 5 as Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panathinaikos stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lamia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Panathinaikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Lamia have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Panathinaikos and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 40% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 43% | Lamia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.10 xG and Lamia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.179 / defence 0.710 | Lamia attack 1.073 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Panathinaikos games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 24% | Lamia 16%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Lamia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 50% | Lamia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 24% | Lamia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Panathinaikos 2.10 / Lamia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.179 / def 0.710 | Lamia attack 1.073 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lamia xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 60% chance of winning, Lamia a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Record (6 meetings): Panathinaikos 5W | Draws 1 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 1.18x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.18
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
3.14
1.04
Lamia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
51.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.04 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 39W 15D 9L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 14W 21D 28L from 63 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.13 PPG from 31 outings (19W 9D 3L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 13D 14L from 31 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.97 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 39W 15D 9L in their last 63 games (2.10 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 21D 28L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.13 PPG; Lamia away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Lamia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 39%, Lamia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panathinaikos) and 55% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Lamia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 52% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 55% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lamia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 2.10 xG and Lamia 1.04 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.18 / defence 0.71 against Lamia attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 24% | Lamia 16%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Lamia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.