Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 70% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Olympiakos Piraeus at 1.90 PPG versus Lamia's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 40% versus Lamia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Lamia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 xG and Lamia 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.327 / defence 0.783 | Lamia attack 1.107 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 0.768. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 28 Lamia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Draw 22% | Lamia 7%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.43 | Draw 4.55 | Lamia 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (70%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Lamia 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Draw 22% | Lamia 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 / Lamia 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.327 / def 0.783 | Lamia attack 1.107 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.607 / away 0.768 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Lamia xG
46%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 70% chance of winning, Lamia a 7% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 0 | Lamia 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Lamia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.33x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 3-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
70%
1.42
22%
4.46
7%
13.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.88
0.67
Lamia xG
1.42
70%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
13.85
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
11%
9.17
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
127.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.67 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 21W 9D 5L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamia's form line: 6W 15D 14L from 35 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (12W 4D 2L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 1W 10D 7L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.74 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 21W 9D 5L in their last 35 games (2.06 PPG), while Lamia have gone 6W 15D 14L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Lamia away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.22 PPG; Lamia away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Lamia in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Lamia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 39%, Lamia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 39% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 44% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 39% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lamia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 4-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 xG and Lamia 0.67 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.33 / defence 0.78 against Lamia attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Draw 22% | Lamia 7%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, Lamia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.