Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 70% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Lamia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Lamia have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Olympiakos Piraeus at 1.90 PPG versus Lamia's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Lamia and 0 draws.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2023, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 3–0 Lamia — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

The head-to-head data gives Olympiakos Piraeus an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Data

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (last 35 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.

Lamia trading profile (last 35 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 40% versus Lamia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Lamia 40%). Note also that Lamia surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Olympiakos Piraeus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.22 xG and Lamia 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.327 / defence 0.783 | Lamia attack 1.107 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 0.768. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.327 — their 2.22 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 28 games and Lamia's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Draw 22% | Lamia 7%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 | Draw 4.46 | Lamia 13.85. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (70%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Olympiakos Piraeus 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Olympiakos Piraeus 28 games, Lamia 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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