Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Panserraikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Panserraikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panserraikos's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.50 for Panserraikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Panserraikos in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus Panserraikos 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Panserraikos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 2.23 xG and Panserraikos 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.106 / defence 1.006 | Panserraikos attack 1.081 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.123. Data: 33 Aris Thessalonikis games / 6 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 17%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Panserraikos 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 80% | Panserraikos 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 2.23 / Panserraikos 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.106 / def 1.006 | Panserraikos attack 1.081 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Panserraikos xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 57% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.11x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (1.08x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 33/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.00
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
3.45
1.22
Panserraikos xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
11%
9.25
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
2%
52.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.22 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 1L across 6 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Aris Thessalonikis against 1.50 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.83 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panserraikos in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panserraikos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.33 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panserraikos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Panserraikos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Aris Thessalonikis, 67% for Panserraikos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 33% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Panserraikos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Panserraikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 67% of Panserraikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 33% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Panserraikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panserraikos 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 2.23 xG and Panserraikos 1.22 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Panserraikos attack 1.08 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 17%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Panserraikos 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panserraikos's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 PPG, Panserraikos 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.