Lamia 2-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs PAS Giannina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia's home record at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
PAS Giannina's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, PAS Giannina have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Lamia 1W, PAS Giannina 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 42% versus PAS Giannina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 40% | PAS Giannina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.53 xG and PAS Giannina 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.865 / defence 0.963 | PAS Giannina attack 1.022 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.150. Data: 33 Lamia games / 33 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 43% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 24%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | PAS Giannina 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 40% | PAS Giannina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Friday 20 Oct 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 43% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Lamia 1.53 / PAS Giannina 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.865 / def 0.963 | PAS Giannina attack 1.022 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Lamia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
PAS Giannina xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 20 October 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Lamia 2 - 1 PAS Giannina.
Where is Lamia vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAS Giannina part of?
Lamia vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 43% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lamia and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Record (5 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 2 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against PAS Giannina's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — PAS Giannina's attack (1.02x) against Lamia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
43%
2.33
33%
3.06
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
PAS Giannina xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
5%
18.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lamia and 1.13 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 7W 17D 16L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAS Giannina's form line: 8W 15D 17L from 40 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Lamia against 0.98 for PAS Giannina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 9D 8L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.02 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
PAS Giannina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 7W 17D 16L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 8W 15D 17L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAS Giannina away?
Lamia's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.26 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lamia go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lamia won 1-4 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lamia
2
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 3, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when PAS Giannina 1-4 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAS Giannina?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 42%, PAS Giannina 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lamia) and 47% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: Lamia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lamia have failed to score in 32% of games; PAS Giannina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lamia's recent matches and 63% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lamia's recent games and 47% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out PAS Giannina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat PAS Giannina 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.53 xG and PAS Giannina 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against PAS Giannina attack 1.02 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 43% | Draw 33% | PAS Giannina 24%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 40%, PAS Giannina 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.95 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.