Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Kalamata welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.12 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.952 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 0 Kalamata games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kalamata 33% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 33% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Kalamata 1.12 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.952 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Aris Thessalonikis xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Kalamata 2 - 3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 33% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kalamata's attack at 0.85x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Kalamata's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.08
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.30
1.17
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.17 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Pre-Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Kalamata
0
Draws
1
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 1 meetings on record, Kalamata have won 0, Aris Thessalonikis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Kalamata 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Kalamata 2-3 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalamata 1.12 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.17 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kalamata beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalamata attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalamata 33% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.