🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Iraklis 1908 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

AEK Athens FC and Iraklis 1908 meet at Allwyn Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 8W 2D 0L at Allwyn Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allwyn Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Allwyn Arena than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.78 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.140 / defence 0.877 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.071. Data: 26 AEK Athens FC games / 0 Iraklis 1908 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 26% | Iraklis 1908 15%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Iraklis 1908 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights