Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees OFI travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
OFI — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 5 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 50% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 34% | OFI 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 xG and OFI 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.892 / defence 0.972 | OFI attack 1.029 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Aris Thessalonikis games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 32% | OFI 28%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | OFI 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 40% | Draw 32% | OFI 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.31 / OFI 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.892 / def 0.972 | OFI attack 1.029 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.07
OFI xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 40% chance of winning, OFI a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 4W | Draws 1 | OFI 5W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.89x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
40%
2.49
32%
3.17
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.39
1.07
OFI xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.07 for OFI, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 11W 13D 8L from 32 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 17L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.44 PPG, OFI on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 5W 9D 2L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.34 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 13D 8L in their last 32 games (1.44 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or OFI away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.50 PPG; OFI away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, OFI in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, OFI have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, OFI 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 75% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 62% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 75% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and OFI tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.