Atromitos 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Atromitos. A 1.50 PPG lead over OFI (1.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atromitos lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 56% versus OFI 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atromitos 36% | OFI 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.89 xG and OFI 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.994 / defence 0.886 | OFI attack 0.676 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.170. Data: 43 Atromitos games / 43 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 64% | Draw 24% | OFI 12%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | OFI 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 60% | OFI 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 64% | Draw 24% | OFI 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG Atromitos 1.89 / OFI 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.994 / def 0.886 | OFI attack 0.676 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.70
OFI xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 64% chance of winning, OFI a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
Record (2 meetings): Atromitos 0W | Draws 1 | OFI 1W.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
Atromitos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. OFI (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.99x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.68x) against Atromitos's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.12
12%
8.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.59
0.70
OFI xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
8.58
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
56.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.70 for OFI, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 14W 18D 18L from 50 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 19L across 50 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Atromitos against 1.14 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 9W 11D 4L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
Atromitos's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.58 PPG; OFI away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 46%, OFI 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Atromitos) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 29% of games; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atromitos's recent matches and 42% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Atromitos's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 18, as Atromitos and OFI drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.89 xG and OFI 0.70 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against OFI attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 64% | Draw 24% | OFI 12%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 36%, OFI 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.20 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.