PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (79%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadio Toumbas — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PAOK are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for PAOK, 2 for PAS Giannina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
PAS Giannina trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 42% versus PAS Giannina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 58% | PAS Giannina 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.64 xG and PAS Giannina 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.431 / defence 0.611 | PAS Giannina attack 0.850 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.224. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence rating of 0.611 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 PAOK games / 43 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 79% | Draw 15% | PAS Giannina 6%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | PAS Giannina 16.67. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (79%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 20% | PAS Giannina 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 79% | Draw 15% | PAS Giannina 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 44% | xG PAOK 2.64 / PAS Giannina 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.431 / def 0.611 | PAS Giannina attack 0.850 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: PAOK (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.64
PAS Giannina xG
44%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs PAS Giannina kick off?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
PAOK 4 - 0 PAS Giannina.
Where is PAOK vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs PAS Giannina part of?
PAOK vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 79% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PAOK and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
Record (7 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 1 | PAS Giannina 2W.
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in?
PAOK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.43) and PAS Giannina's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
79%
1.26
15%
6.75
6%
16.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
PAOK xG
Total xG
3.27
0.64
PAS Giannina xG
1.26
79%
Home win
6.75
15%
Draw
16.89
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
7%
13.99
Win to Nil
42%
2.38
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for PAOK and 0.64 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs PAS Giannina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 29W 11D 10L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 9W 19D 22L from 50 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PAS Giannina.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (17W 4D 4L).
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 11D 12L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 0.98 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 29W 11D 10L in their last 50 games (1.96 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 9W 19D 22L in their last 50 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or PAS Giannina away?
PAOK's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.20 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.68 PPG.
Have PAOK or PAS Giannina been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, PAS Giannina in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PAOK
1
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
From 8 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and PAS Giannina?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 32%, PAS Giannina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (PAOK) and 44% (PAS Giannina).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; PAS Giannina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of PAOK's recent matches and 64% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of PAOK's recent games and 44% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat PAS Giannina 4-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 2.64 xG and PAS Giannina 0.64 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.43 / defence 0.61 against PAS Giannina attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 79% | Draw 15% | PAS Giannina 6%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 58%, PAS Giannina 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.