Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Asteras Tripolis 1.50 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, Volos NFC 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 38% versus Volos NFC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 38% | Volos NFC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG and Volos NFC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.892 / defence 1.283 | Volos NFC attack 0.828 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.241. Data: 43 Asteras Tripolis games / 43 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 31%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Volos NFC 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.52 / Volos NFC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.892 / def 1.283 | Volos NFC attack 0.828 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Volos NFC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 40% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
Record (4 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.52
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.84
1.32
Volos NFC xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.32 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 12W 18D 20L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 13W 11D 26L from 50 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.08 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (8W 10D 7L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 8D 11L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.94 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 18D 20L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Volos NFC away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.36 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 40%, Volos NFC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Asteras Tripolis) and 52% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 36% of games; Volos NFC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 36% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 52% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Volos NFC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Volos NFC 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.52 xG and Volos NFC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Volos NFC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Volos NFC attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 31%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 38%, Volos NFC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.08 PPG, Volos NFC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.