OFI 1-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 45%, yet in-form Lamia provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, OFI have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — OFI are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lamia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Lamia have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Lamia arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for OFI, 1 for Lamia and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended OFI 2–2 Lamia — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 45% versus Lamia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 41% | Lamia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.39 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.761 / defence 1.008 | Lamia attack 0.844 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.169. OFI's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Data: built from OFI's last 42 games and Lamia's last 42.
Result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 30% | Lamia 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.25 | Draw 3.32 | Lamia 3.95. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamia (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 8 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 30% | Lamia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG OFI 1.39 / Lamia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.761 / def 1.008 | Lamia attack 0.844 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: OFI (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lamia xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Lamia FAQs
What time does OFI vs Lamia kick off?
OFI vs Lamia kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 8 January 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Lamia?
OFI 1 - 1 Lamia.
Where is OFI vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Lamia part of?
OFI vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 17) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 45% chance of winning, Lamia a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will OFI vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.76x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.84x) against OFI's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 42 games and Lamia's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
45%
2.25
30%
3.32
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
OFI xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
Lamia xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for OFI and 0.99 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 17D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 1.00 PPG from 49 outings (10W 19D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for OFI against 1.00 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 6W 10D 9L across their last 25 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.72 points per game from their last 25 away games (2W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.84 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Lamia
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ OFI vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Lamia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 19D 20L in their last 49 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Lamia away?
OFI's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.12 PPG; Lamia away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between OFI and Lamia, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won Lamia 1-4 OFI on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Lamia?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 48%, Lamia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (OFI) and 44% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 40% of games; Lamia in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of OFI's recent matches and 40% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of OFI's recent games and 44% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of OFI's recent matches and 52% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Lamia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 17, as OFI and Lamia drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.39 xG and Lamia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.76 / defence 1.01 against Lamia attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 45% | Draw 30% | Lamia 25%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 41%, Lamia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.14 PPG, Lamia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.