Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.40 vs 1.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 2W, PAOK 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus PAOK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | PAOK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.143 / defence 0.860 | PAOK attack 1.484 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.182. PAOK's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 49 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 27% | Draw 26% | PAOK 47%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | PAOK 2.13. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Olympiakos Piraeus (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | PAOK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 27% | Draw 26% | PAOK 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 / PAOK 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.143 / def 0.860 | PAOK attack 1.484 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: PAOK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.51
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 27% chance of winning, PAOK a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 0 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.14) and PAOK's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.48x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
27%
3.73
26%
3.88
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.58
1.51
PAOK xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
16.84
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.51 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 38W 12D 9L from 59 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 38W 9D 12L across 59 games — 2.08 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.14 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.08 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 21W 5D 3L from 29 games — 2.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 19W 5D 5L across 29 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.27 scored and 0.95 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; PAOK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 38W 12D 9L in their last 59 games (2.14 PPG), while PAOK have gone 38W 9D 12L in their last 59 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.34 PPG; PAOK away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, PAOK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 59%, PAOK 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 66% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 66% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 66% of PAOK's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PAOK in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat PAOK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.07 xG and PAOK 1.51 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against PAOK attack 1.48 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 27% | Draw 26% | PAOK 47%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.14 PPG, PAOK 2.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.