Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Aris Thessalonikis face OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
OFI travel to Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium to take on Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (Conference League Group - 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
OFI — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OFI away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, OFI 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 4 for OFI and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2026, ended Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 OFI — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
OFI in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 49% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 31% | OFI 61%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Aris Thessalonikis recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG and OFI 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.728 / defence 0.920 | OFI attack 1.083 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. OFI's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output up. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 52 games and OFI's last 52.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Draw 33% | OFI 30%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.74 | Draw 3.03 | OFI 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 home games) | OFI 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 4 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Draw 33% | OFI 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 / OFI 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.728 / def 0.920 | OFI attack 1.083 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.06
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 1 OFI.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (Conference League Group - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 37% chance of winning, OFI a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 0.73x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 52 games and OFI's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
37%
2.74
33%
3.03
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.25
1.06
OFI xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.06 for OFI, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 24W 21D 16L from 61 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 29L across 61 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.52 PPG, OFI on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 14W 12D 4L from their last 30 home games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.26 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
OFI
Current Season
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 21D 16L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while OFI have gone 21W 11D 29L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or OFI away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.80 PPG; OFI away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, OFI in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won OFI 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 43%, OFI 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 60% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and OFI matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 53% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 60% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 67% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 3-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Conference League Group - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.18 xG and OFI 1.06 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.73 / defence 0.92 against OFI attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 37% | Draw 33% | OFI 30%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 31%, OFI 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.52 PPG, OFI 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.