AEK Athens FC 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AEK Athens FC lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.25 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.442 / defence 0.650 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.309 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.147. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — their λ of 1.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 0.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.650 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 AEK Athens FC games / 50 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 29%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.25 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.442 / def 0.650 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.309 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
AEK Athens FC 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 43% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (3 meetings): AEK Athens FC 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.44x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.31x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.51
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.23
0.98
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
8%
12.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.98 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.17 PPG on a 39W 13D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 39W 12D 9L from 60 games, 2.15 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.17 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.53 PPG from 30 outings (23W 7D 0L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 17W 7D 6L from 30 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 39W 13D 8L in their last 60 games (2.17 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 12D 9L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.53 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.93 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 37%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AEK Athens FC) and 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 0-1 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.25 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.98 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.44 / defence 0.65 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.31 / defence 0.66, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 43% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 29%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 60%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.17 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.