🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours OFI (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as OFI face Lamia.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

OFI have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season.

Lamia (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. OFI's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lamia's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 3W to 1W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Lamia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Lamia 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 2.00 xG and Lamia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.066 / defence 1.285 | Lamia attack 0.619 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.169. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 OFI games / 50 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: OFI 62% | Draw 21% | Lamia 17%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Lamia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to OFI (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: OFI 50% | Lamia 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights