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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face OFI.

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Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.

OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Olympiakos Piraeus register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, OFI in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 7 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).

OFI in-play and half-time data (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 53% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 57% | OFI 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.61 xG and OFI 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.188 / defence 0.847 | OFI attack 1.158 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.147. Data: 51 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 51 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Draw 25% | OFI 27%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | OFI 3.70. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.

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