AEK Athens FC 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AEK Athens FC face Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos meet at OPAP Arena in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC at OPAP Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at OPAP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AEK Athens FC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Levadiakos's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, AEK Athens FC have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Levadiakos managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The historical record gives AEK Athens FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 27% versus Levadiakos 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 40% | Levadiakos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.51 xG and Levadiakos 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.498 / defence 0.655 | Levadiakos attack 1.176 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.156. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AEK Athens FC's defence rating of 0.655 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 AEK Athens FC games / 15 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 73% | Draw 16% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Levadiakos 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 20% | Levadiakos 86%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 73% | Draw 16% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 54% | xG AEK Athens FC 2.51 / Levadiakos 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.498 / def 0.655 | Levadiakos attack 1.176 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Levadiakos xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 73% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
Record (3 meetings): AEK Athens FC 3W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.50x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.18x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 41/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
73%
1.38
16%
6.18
11%
8.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.40
0.89
Levadiakos xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.18
16%
Draw
8.88
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
8%
12.26
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
1%
108.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.89 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 9W 3D 3L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 2W 7D 6L from 15 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AEK Athens FC have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 67%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 2W 7D 6L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Levadiakos away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.43 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.86 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AEK Athens FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 29%, Levadiakos 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AEK Athens FC) and 71% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of AEK Athens FC's games and 86% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 71% of Levadiakos's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 16, as AEK Athens FC and Levadiakos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.51 xG and Levadiakos 0.89 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AEK Athens FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.50 / defence 0.66 against Levadiakos attack 1.18 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 73% | Draw 16% | Levadiakos 11%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 40%, Levadiakos 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.