Levadiakos 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Panathinaikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Levadias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Levadias this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Panathinaikos are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Panathinaikos hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Panathinaikos winning.
It is worth noting that Panathinaikos have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 71% versus Panathinaikos 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 57% | Panathinaikos 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.86 xG and Panathinaikos 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.935 / defence 1.231 | Panathinaikos attack 0.926 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.255. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Levadiakos games / 40 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 22% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 50%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Panathinaikos 2.00. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 57% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 22% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Levadiakos 0.86 / Panathinaikos 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.935 / def 1.231 | Panathinaikos attack 0.926 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Panathinaikos xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Levadiakos 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 22% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Levadiakos and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Record (3 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.93x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 14/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
22%
4.52
28%
3.58
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.29
1.43
Panathinaikos xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
18.89
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.43 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 2W 7D 5L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos's form line: 7W 5D 2L from 14 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.00 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Panathinaikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 57%, Panathinaikos 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Levadiakos) and 29% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 57%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 43% of games; Panathinaikos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 29% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Levadiakos's recent games and 29% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Levadiakos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Levadiakos 0-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.86 xG and Panathinaikos 1.43 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Panathinaikos attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 22% | Draw 28% | Panathinaikos 50%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 57%, Panathinaikos 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.