OFI 4-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Monday 23 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Volos NFC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for OFI against 1.40 for Volos NFC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 56% versus Volos NFC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 54% | Volos NFC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.23 xG and Volos NFC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.964 / defence 1.301 | Volos NFC attack 0.958 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.158. Data: 41 OFI games / 41 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 42%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Volos NFC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 70% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 23 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG OFI 1.23 / Volos NFC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.964 / def 1.301 | Volos NFC attack 0.958 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Volos NFC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Volos NFC kick off?
OFI vs Volos NFC kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 23 December 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
OFI 4 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is OFI vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Volos NFC part of?
OFI vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 32% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both OFI and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
Record (4 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.96x the league average against Volos NFC's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.96x) against OFI's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
32%
3.14
27%
3.77
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
OFI xG
Total xG
2.67
1.44
Volos NFC xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for OFI and 1.44 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, OFI have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 11W 19D 18L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 13W 11D 24L from 48 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for OFI against 1.04 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.33 PPG from 24 outings (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 7W 5D 12L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 19D 18L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 13W 11D 24L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Volos NFC away?
OFI's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.33 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: OFI have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
3
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 5, Volos NFC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when OFI 2-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Volos NFC?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 58%, Volos NFC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (OFI) and 46% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of OFI's recent matches and 38% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of OFI's recent games and 46% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Volos NFC tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Volos NFC 4-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.23 xG and Volos NFC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against Volos NFC attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 32% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 42%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, Volos NFC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.08 PPG, Volos NFC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.