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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Lamia.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024, 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Lamia, with 0 draws in between.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Lamia trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus Lamia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Lamia 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.455 / defence 0.805 | Lamia attack 0.850 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.223. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 41 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 63% | Draw 22% | Lamia 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Lamia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Lamia 50%.

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