Werder Bremen 2-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Werder Bremen face VfB Stuttgart.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to Weserstadion to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Werder Bremen at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Werder Bremen, 1.60 for VfB Stuttgart — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Werder Bremen 2–1 VfB Stuttgart — a Werder Bremen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 60% and VfB Stuttgart 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 62% | VfB Stuttgart 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.28 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.802 / defence 1.085 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.919 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 45 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 45.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 32% | VfB Stuttgart 37%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.16 | Draw 3.17 | VfB Stuttgart 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and VfB Stuttgart's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 60% (last 10 home games) | VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 32% | VfB Stuttgart 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.28 / VfB Stuttgart 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.802 / def 1.085 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.919 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.40
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Werder Bremen 2 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 32% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.80x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.92x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 45 games and VfB Stuttgart's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.17
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 12D 18L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.98 PPG from 45 outings (27W 8D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Werder Bremen's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 22 away games (11W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 60%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Werder Bremen (Home) vs VfB Stuttgart (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 8D 10L in their last 45 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.36 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won Werder Bremen 0-4 VfB Stuttgart on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 59%, VfB Stuttgart 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Werder Bremen and 73% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Werder Bremen's games and 54% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Werder Bremen's matches and 73% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 59% of VfB Stuttgart's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 2-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.28 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 32% | Draw 32% | VfB Stuttgart 37%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, VfB Stuttgart 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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