🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

FC St. Pauli host Holstein Kiel at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form Guide

FC St. Pauli — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Holstein Kiel away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 0.80 PPG versus Holstein Kiel's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

FC St. Pauli hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Holstein Kiel, with 1 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 4–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC St. Pauli and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

FC St. Pauli trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Holstein Kiel trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 53% versus Holstein Kiel 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 51% | Holstein Kiel 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.86 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.443 / defence 0.869 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.892 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.402. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.443 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 FC St. Pauli games / 11 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 37% | Holstein Kiel 37%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Holstein Kiel 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 30% | Holstein Kiel 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights