VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.

Union Berlin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Union Berlin's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.20 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 2W, Union Berlin 2W, 2D.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Union Berlin 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 74% | Union Berlin 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.63 xG and Union Berlin 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.200 / defence 0.979 | Union Berlin attack 0.633 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.453. Data: 46 VfB Stuttgart games / 46 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 5.56. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Union Berlin 20%.

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