VfB Stuttgart 2-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face VfL Bochum.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Bochum make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at MHPArena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward VfB Stuttgart. A 1.10 PPG lead over VfL Bochum (1.30 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfL Bochum in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 3W, VfL Bochum 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with VfL Bochum winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 61% and VfL Bochum 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 75% | VfL Bochum 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 3.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.294 / defence 1.101 | VfL Bochum attack 0.944 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.463. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 3.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 VfB Stuttgart games / 44 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 17% | VfL Bochum 14%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | VfL Bochum 7.14. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (3.15 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | VfL Bochum 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 17% | VfL Bochum 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 76% | xG VfB Stuttgart 3.15 / VfL Bochum 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.294 / def 1.101 | VfL Bochum attack 0.944 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.15
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.52
VfL Bochum xG
76%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 68% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
Record (6 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 3W | Draws 2 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.15. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.94x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 4-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
68%
1.46
17%
5.76
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
4 – 1
5.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.15
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.67
1.52
VfL Bochum xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
50%
Over 4.5
2.00
50%
Under 4.5
2.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
4%
23.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
1%
165.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 3.15 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.52 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 4.67.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 26W 8D 10L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 8W 13D 23L from 44 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.27 PPG from 22 outings (15W 5D 2L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 4D 15L from 22 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.23 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 8D 10L in their last 44 games (1.95 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 8W 13D 23L in their last 44 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or VfL Bochum away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.27 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 0-4 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for VfB Stuttgart, 64% for VfL Bochum — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for VfB Stuttgart and 73% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 64% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 73% of VfL Bochum's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Bochum 2-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 3.15 xG and VfL Bochum 1.52 xG, a combined 4.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.2 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.29 / defence 1.10 against VfL Bochum attack 0.94 / defence 1.54, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 68% | Draw 17% | VfL Bochum 14%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 75%, VfL Bochum 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.