Werder Bremen 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 39%, yet in-form FC Augsburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 1D 6L at Weserstadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Augsburg are 1.10 PPG clear of Werder Bremen in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, FC Augsburg have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Werder Bremen's 2, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with FC Augsburg winning.
It is worth noting that FC Augsburg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 51% versus FC Augsburg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 54% | FC Augsburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.976 / defence 1.008 | FC Augsburg attack 1.187 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 2.005 / away 1.461. Data: 37 Werder Bremen games / 37 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 37%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Augsburg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 50% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Werder Bremen 1.80 / FC Augsburg 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.976 / def 1.008 | FC Augsburg attack 1.187 / def 0.918 | league avg home 2.005 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.75
FC Augsburg xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 39% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
Record (9 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 5W.
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.98) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.19x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
39%
2.57
24%
4.12
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.54
1.75
FC Augsburg xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.33
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.75 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 9D 19L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (14W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.35 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (6W 2D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.46 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.22 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
5
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 50%, FC Augsburg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Werder Bremen and 72% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Werder Bremen's games and 67% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Werder Bremen's matches and 72% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Werder Bremen edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 1.75 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against FC Augsburg attack 1.19 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 39% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 37%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 54%, FC Augsburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 0.97 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.