FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for FC Augsburg, 1.70 for Bayer Leverkusen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bayer Leverkusen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Augsburg lead 4W to 5W over the last 9 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 61% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 64% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 2.11 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.060 / defence 0.847 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.025 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.530. Data: 36 FC Augsburg games / 36 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.35. The model has a clear lean to FC Augsburg (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Augsburg 2.11 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.060 / def 0.847 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.025 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bayer Leverkusen xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 2 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 55% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (9 meetings): FC Augsburg 4W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 5W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.02x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.48
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.33
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
3%
35.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.33 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 14W 7D 15L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.72 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 7D 15L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.61 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 56%, Bayer Leverkusen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Augsburg and 67% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 3, as FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 2.11 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.33 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.85 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 55% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 64%, Bayer Leverkusen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.36 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.